Stock Analysis

Swire Properties Limited's (HKG:1972) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 45% Above Its Share Price

SEHK:1972
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Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Swire Properties fair value estimate is HK$18.18
  • Current share price of HK$12.52 suggests Swire Properties is potentially 31% undervalued
  • Analyst price target for 1972 is HK$17.99 which is 1.1% below our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Swire Properties Limited (HKG:1972) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Swire Properties

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions) HK$6.85b HK$7.51b HK$8.01b HK$8.43b HK$8.80b HK$9.12b HK$9.41b HK$9.69b HK$9.94b HK$10.2b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Est @ 6.61% Est @ 5.27% Est @ 4.34% Est @ 3.68% Est @ 3.22% Est @ 2.90% Est @ 2.67% Est @ 2.52%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8% HK$6.2k HK$6.2k HK$6.1k HK$5.8k HK$5.5k HK$5.2k HK$4.9k HK$4.6k HK$4.3k HK$4.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$53b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$10b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (9.8%– 2.2%) = HK$136b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= HK$136b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)10= HK$54b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$106b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$12.5, the company appears quite good value at a 31% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
SEHK:1972 Discounted Cash Flow July 29th 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Swire Properties as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.395. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Swire Properties

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Swire Properties, there are three pertinent aspects you should consider:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Swire Properties you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 1972's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.