Swire Properties Limited

SEHK:1972 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$93.5b

Swire Properties Valuation

Is 1972 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1972 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1972 (HK$15.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$19.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1972 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1972?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

1972 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.3x
PEG Ratio1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1972's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1972 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.9x
1997 Wharf Real Estate Investment
15.2x11.8%HK$72.4b
101 Hang Lung Properties
9.5x9.5%HK$37.8b
1209 China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services
20.3x17.5%HK$64.4b
2602 Onewo
10.7x13.6%HK$22.5b
1972 Swire Properties
35.5x23.3%HK$93.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1972 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the peer average (13.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1972's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1972 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1972's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1972 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35.5x
Fair PE Ratio14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1972 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1972 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$15.98
HK$19.78
+23.8%
14.9%HK$28.50HK$16.00n/a15
Apr ’25HK$16.44
HK$19.70
+19.8%
15.4%HK$28.50HK$16.00n/a15
Mar ’25HK$15.90
HK$19.83
+24.7%
18.6%HK$31.00HK$15.00n/a15
Feb ’25HK$14.62
HK$20.42
+39.7%
21.5%HK$31.00HK$15.00n/a14
Jan ’25HK$15.80
HK$21.43
+35.6%
19.4%HK$31.00HK$15.00n/a14
Dec ’24HK$15.28
HK$21.62
+41.5%
19.4%HK$31.00HK$15.00n/a13
Nov ’24HK$15.14
HK$21.62
+42.8%
19.4%HK$31.00HK$15.00n/a13
Oct ’24HK$16.34
HK$21.82
+33.5%
18.7%HK$31.00HK$16.00n/a13
Sep ’24HK$16.40
HK$22.28
+35.8%
16.9%HK$31.00HK$17.60n/a13
Aug ’24HK$19.22
HK$22.70
+18.1%
17.3%HK$31.00HK$16.50n/a13
Jul ’24HK$19.26
HK$22.84
+18.6%
17.0%HK$31.00HK$16.50n/a13
Jun ’24HK$18.72
HK$22.92
+22.4%
16.8%HK$31.00HK$16.50n/a13
May ’24HK$21.05
HK$22.52
+7.0%
18.2%HK$31.00HK$16.50n/a13
Apr ’24HK$20.20
HK$22.54
+11.6%
18.2%HK$31.00HK$16.50HK$16.4413
Mar ’24HK$21.15
HK$22.16
+4.8%
20.3%HK$31.00HK$16.50HK$15.9013
Feb ’24HK$21.75
HK$21.87
+0.6%
20.7%HK$31.00HK$16.50HK$14.6213
Jan ’24HK$19.84
HK$20.99
+5.8%
19.7%HK$31.00HK$16.50HK$15.8013
Dec ’23HK$17.84
HK$21.74
+21.9%
19.8%HK$31.00HK$16.50HK$15.2813
Nov ’23HK$15.20
HK$23.24
+52.9%
16.5%HK$31.00HK$16.80HK$15.1413
Oct ’23HK$16.90
HK$23.51
+39.1%
16.6%HK$31.00HK$16.80HK$16.3412
Sep ’23HK$18.10
HK$23.75
+31.2%
15.8%HK$31.00HK$16.80HK$16.4013
Aug ’23HK$18.68
HK$25.02
+33.9%
21.9%HK$40.10HK$17.40HK$19.2214
Jul ’23HK$19.48
HK$25.05
+28.6%
21.9%HK$40.10HK$17.40HK$19.2614
Jun ’23HK$19.70
HK$25.16
+27.7%
21.7%HK$40.10HK$17.40HK$18.7214
May ’23HK$18.98
HK$25.19
+32.7%
21.7%HK$40.10HK$17.40HK$21.0514
Apr ’23HK$19.66
HK$25.19
+28.1%
21.7%HK$40.10HK$17.40HK$20.2014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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