Swire Pacific's (HKG:19) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

The board of Swire Pacific Limited (HKG:19) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of HK$1.20 on the 13th of October, an increased payment from last year's comparable dividend. The payment will take the dividend yield to 4.8%, which is in line with the average for the industry.

Check out our latest analysis for Swire Pacific

Swire Pacific's Earnings Easily Cover The Distributions

We aren't too impressed by dividend yields unless they can be sustained over time. Swire Pacific was earning enough to cover the previous dividend, but it was paying out quite a large proportion of its free cash flows. The company is clearly earning enough to pay this type of dividend, but it is definitely focused on returning cash to shareholders, rather than growing the business.

Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 97.2%. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 32% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range.

Dividend Volatility

Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was HK$3.50 in 2013, and the most recent fiscal year payment was HK$3.05. Doing the maths, this is a decline of about 1.4% per year. Generally, we don't like to see a dividend that has been declining over time as this can degrade shareholders' returns and indicate that the company may be running into problems.

Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. Over the past five years, it looks as though Swire Pacific's EPS has declined at around 24% a year. A sharp decline in earnings per share is not great from from a dividend perspective. Even conservative payout ratios can come under pressure if earnings fall far enough. On the bright side, earnings are predicted to gain some ground over the next year, but until this turns into a pattern we wouldn't be feeling too comfortable.

In Summary

Overall, we always like to see the dividend being raised, but we don't think Swire Pacific will make a great income stock. While Swire Pacific is earning enough to cover the dividend, we are generally unimpressed with its future prospects. Overall, we don't think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. For instance, we've picked out 1 warning sign for Swire Pacific that investors should take into consideration. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.