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Even after rising 9.4% this past week, New World Development (HKG:17) shareholders are still down 73% over the past five years
It is doubtless a positive to see that the New World Development Company Limited (HKG:17) share price has gained some 56% in the last three months. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. In fact, the share price has tumbled down a mountain to land 81% lower after that period. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
While the last five years has been tough for New World Development shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Because New World Development made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over half a decade New World Development reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 7.2% for each year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. The share price fall of 13% (per year, over five years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. Fear of becoming a 'bagholder' may be keeping people away from this stock.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
This free interactive report on New World Development's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between New World Development's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for New World Development shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 73%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
New World Development shareholders are up 7.3% for the year. But that was short of the market average. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 12% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand New World Development better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for New World Development you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if New World Development might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:17
New World Development
An investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment business in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
Fair value with worrying balance sheet.
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