China Resources Land Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from China Resources Land Limited (HKG:1109), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. China Resources Land beat revenue expectations by 3.4%, at CN¥279b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at CN¥3.61, some 5.5% short of analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the consensus from China Resources Land's 22 analysts is for revenues of CN¥271.6b in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 2.6% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 2.0% to CN¥3.66. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥260.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.90 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on China Resources Land after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

View our latest analysis for China Resources Land

The consensus price target was unchanged at HK$34.18, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on China Resources Land, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$43.00 and the most bearish at HK$30.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await China Resources Land shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.6% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that China Resources Land's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Resources Land. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Resources Land going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for China Resources Land that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.