Results: Akeso, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Akeso missed revenue estimates by 6.0%, coming in atCN¥4.5b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.42 beat expectations, coming in 8.5% ahead of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Akeso

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 17 analysts covering Akeso is for revenues of CN¥2.53b in 2024. This implies a stressful 44% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -CN¥0.49 per share in 2024. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥2.90b and CN¥0.44 per share in losses. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of HK$58.55, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Akeso analyst has a price target of HK$68.83 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$48.96. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 44% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 87% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 26% per year. It's pretty clear that Akeso's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Akeso. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Akeso. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Akeso analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Akeso's balance sheet, and whether we think Akeso is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.