An Intrinsic Calculation For SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings) Limited (HKG:6600) Suggests It's 45% Undervalued

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings) Limited (HKG:6600) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings)

The calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥738.8m	CN¥714.8m	CN¥701.8m	CN¥695.9m	CN¥694.9m	CN¥697.3m	CN¥702.1m	CN¥708.6m	CN¥716.3m	CN¥725.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -5.27%	Est @ -3.25%	Est @ -1.83%	Est @ -0.84%	Est @ -0.14%	Est @ 0.35%	Est @ 0.69%	Est @ 0.92%	Est @ 1.09%	Est @ 1.21%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 5.9%	CN¥697	CN¥637	CN¥590	CN¥553	CN¥521	CN¥494	CN¥469	CN¥447	CN¥427	CN¥408

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥5.2b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥725m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (5.9%– 1.5%) = CN¥17b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥17b÷ ( 1 + 5.9%)¹⁰= CN¥9.3b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥15b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of HK$14.4, the company appears quite undervalued at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings) as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.824. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings), we've put together three further items you should explore:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings) (2 are significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does 6600's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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