CanSino Biologics Inc. Beat Analyst Profit Forecasts, And Analysts Have New Estimates

Investors in CanSino Biologics Inc. (HKG:6185) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.1% to close at HK$44.92 following the release of its third-quarter results. CanSino Biologics beat expectations by 5.4% with revenues of CN¥310m. It also surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected statutory profit of CN¥0.11 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for CanSino Biologics from three analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.45b in 2026. If met, it would imply a major 50% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. CanSino Biologics is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.81 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥1.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.81 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for CanSino Biologics

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$52.31. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic CanSino Biologics analyst has a price target of HK$66.77 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$40.64. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that CanSino Biologics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 38% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 19% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 26% per year. Not only are CanSino Biologics' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for CanSino Biologics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the CanSino Biologics Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.