Lepu Biopharma Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2157) 27% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Lepu Biopharma Co., Ltd. (HKG:2157) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 21% over that time.

Since its price has surged higher, Lepu Biopharma may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 22x, since almost half of all companies in the Biotechs industry in Hong Kong have P/S ratios under 10.9x and even P/S lower than 5x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

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View our latest analysis for Lepu Biopharma

How Has Lepu Biopharma Performed Recently?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Lepu Biopharma has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Lepu Biopharma's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 63%. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 27% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Lepu Biopharma is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Lepu Biopharma have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Lepu Biopharma revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Lepu Biopharma.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.