HK$591 - That's What Analysts Think Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700) Is Worth After These Results

Investors in Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.4% to close at HK$520 following the release of its yearly results. Tencent Holdings reported CN¥660b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥20.49 beat expectations, being 2.8% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tencent Holdings' 43 analysts is for revenues of CN¥722.5b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 9.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 3.9% to CN¥22.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥713.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥22.01 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Tencent Holdings

The consensus price target rose 12% to HK$591despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Tencent Holdings' earnings by assigning a price premium. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Tencent Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$709 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$318. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Tencent Holdings'historical trends, as the 9.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 8.8% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.3% per year. It's clear that while Tencent Holdings' revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tencent Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tencent Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.