Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1812 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1812 (HK$1.25) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$0.95)

Is 1812 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1812 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1812 (HK$1.25) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$0.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1812 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1812?

Key metric: As 1812 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1812. This is calculated by dividing 1812's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1812's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.3x
Sales	CN¥26.71b
Market Cap	CN¥6.48b

1812 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.7x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1812's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1812 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.2x
2314 Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing	0.4x	3.0%	HK$9.9b
2689 Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings)	0.2x	9.2%	HK$14.6b
923 Integrated Waste Solutions Group Holdings	2.3x	n/a	HK$96.5m
336 Huabao International Holdings	2x	n/a	HK$7.3b
1812 Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings	0.3x	7.6%	HK$6.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1812 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1812's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Forestry Industry?

17 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

17 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1812 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Asian Forestry industry average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1812's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1812 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.3x
Fair PS Ratio	0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1812 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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