Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited (HKG:6898)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 48x China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited (HKG:6898) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 12x and even P/E's lower than 7x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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For example, consider that China Aluminum Cans Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for China Aluminum Cans Holdings

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as China Aluminum Cans Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 24% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 17% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 20% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that China Aluminum Cans Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that China Aluminum Cans Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You need to take note of risks, for example - China Aluminum Cans Holdings has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of China Aluminum Cans Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.