Fufeng Group (HKG:546) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Fufeng Group Limited (HKG:546) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

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Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

What Is Fufeng Group's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2024, Fufeng Group had CN¥11.4b of debt, up from CN¥9.78b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥10.0b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥1.34b.

How Healthy Is Fufeng Group's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Fufeng Group had liabilities of CN¥16.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.51b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥10.0b in cash and CN¥1.23b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥6.49b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Fufeng Group has a market capitalization of CN¥15.2b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

Check out our latest analysis for Fufeng Group

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Fufeng Group has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.38. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. In fact Fufeng Group's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 31% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Fufeng Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Fufeng Group recorded free cash flow of 36% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

We feel some trepidation about Fufeng Group's difficulty EBIT growth rate, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Fufeng Group is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Fufeng Group you should know about.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.