HK$9.41 - That's What Analysts Think CMOC Group Limited (HKG:3993) Is Worth After These Results

It's been a pretty great week for CMOC Group Limited (HKG:3993) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to HK$11.92 in the week since its latest half-yearly results. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at CN¥95b, beating analyst expectations by 8.6%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, CMOC Group's 24 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥212.9b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 5.2% to CN¥0.74 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥209.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.70 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on CMOC Group's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for CMOC Group

The consensus price target rose 7.8% to HK$9.41, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on CMOC Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$13.41 and the most bearish at HK$7.31 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that CMOC Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while CMOC Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards CMOC Group following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple CMOC Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the CMOC Group Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.