Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 10
Executive Director recently bought HK$6.0m worth of stock On the 4th of June, Yunhua Yan bought around 600k shares on-market at roughly HK$9.98 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold HK$23m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Live News • May 17
China XLX Fertiliser Q1 Net Profit Jumps 68.7% as New Capacity and Sales Drive Growth China XLX Fertiliser reported a 68.7% year-on-year surge in net profit for Q1 2026, supported by higher sales volumes and selling prices of its core products.
The company is adjusting its product mix and marketing model, and it is building out international sales channels to capture more demand in both domestic and overseas markets.
Commissioning of the Jiujiang Phase II Project has added capacity and scale, which the company links to the stronger Q1 2026 financial performance.
The combination of higher profitability, a broader product and marketing approach, and new capacity indicates that the current business model is being built around both volume and pricing power rather than relying on just one lever.
Key questions include how sustainable current selling prices and volumes are, and whether the expanded capacity and international push can keep utilization high without pressuring margins. Announcement • May 05
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 15, 2026 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on May 15, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 04
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to HK$12.61, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 17.1x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 273% over the past three years. Declared Dividend • Apr 30
Dividend of HK$0.37 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of HK$0.37. Ex-date: 3rd July 2026 Payment date: 28th July 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 8.1%. Sustainability & Growth The dividend has increased by an average of 14% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Earnings per share has grown by 17% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Apr 28
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 23, 2026 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 23, 2026, at 09:30 China Standard Time. Location: 3rd conference room, 6th floor, r&d building, gate no.7, xinlianxin avenue, xinxiang economic development zone, henan province, xinxiang city China Reported Earnings • Mar 29
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.76 (down from CN¥1.20 in FY 2024). Revenue: CN¥25.4b (up 9.6% from FY 2024). Net income: CN¥932.0m (down 36% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 3.7% (down from 6.3% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 36% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 17
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Mar 27, 2026 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Mar 27, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 28
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to HK$11.63, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 207% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$5.05 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 20
Board Member recently bought HK$496k worth of stock On the 16th of December, Qingjin Zhang bought around 60k shares on-market at roughly HK$8.26 per share. This transaction amounted to 2.5% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth HK$1.4m. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold HK$23m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 01
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to HK$8.75, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 156% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$5.27 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 26
Board Member recently bought HK$1.4m worth of stock On the 21st of November, Qingjin Zhang bought around 190k shares on-market at roughly HK$7.24 per share. This transaction amounted to 8.5% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold HK$23m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Announcement • Oct 14
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 24, 2025 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 24, 2025 New Risk • Sep 30
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 16% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (HK$37m sold). Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 27
Board Member recently bought HK$286k worth of stock On the 23rd of September, Qingjin Zhang bought around 40k shares on-market at roughly HK$7.15 per share. This transaction amounted to 1.9% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth HK$724k. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold HK$23m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 19
Board Member recently bought HK$724k worth of stock On the 16th of September, Qingjin Zhang bought around 100k shares on-market at roughly HK$7.23 per share. This transaction amounted to 4.9% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold HK$23m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 03
Board Member recently bought HK$375k worth of stock On the 28th of August, Qingjin Zhang bought around 50k shares on-market at roughly HK$7.49 per share. This transaction amounted to 2.6% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold HK$25m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. New Risk • Aug 22
New minor risk - Insider selling There has been significant insider selling in the company's shares over the past 3 months. Total value of shares sold: HK$20m This is considered a minor risk. There are several reasons why an insider may be selling, including to cover a tax obligation or pay for some other expense. However, we generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they do so below the current price. It implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. This is a weak signal, but if there is a pattern of unexplained selling, it can be a sign the insider believes the company's stock is overpriced. Note: We only include open market transactions and private dispositions of directly owned stock by individuals, not by corporations or trusts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (94% net debt to equity). Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (HK$20m sold). Recent Insider Transactions • Aug 22
Executive Director recently sold HK$19m worth of stock On the 19th of August, Yunhua Yan sold around 3m shares on-market at roughly HK$6.50 per share. This transaction amounted to 1.2% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of HK$8.6m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
First half 2025 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.49 (vs CN¥0.56 in 1H 2024) First half 2025 results: EPS: CN¥0.49 (down from CN¥0.56 in 1H 2024). Revenue: CN¥12.7b (up 5.0% from 1H 2024). Net income: CN¥599.3m (down 13% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 4.7% (down from 5.7% in 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 29
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 08, 2025 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 08, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 24
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 48% to HK$6.20. The fair value is estimated to be HK$5.12, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 3.6%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 13% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 20% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 17
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.27 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 June 2025. Payment date: 11 July 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 4.9%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (3.5%). Announcement • Jun 13
China Xlx Fertiliser Ltd. Appoints Member of the Nomination Committee, with Effect from 13 June 2025 The board of directors (the "Board") of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (the "Company") hereby announced that Ms. Yan Yunhua, an executive director of the Company, has been appointed as a member of the nomination committee with effect from 13 June 2025. Subsequent to the above change, the nomination committee comprises four independent non-executive directors, namely Mr. Ong Kian Guan, Mr. Li Shengxiao (chairman of the nomination committee), Mr. Ong Wei Jin and Mr. Li Hongxing, and two executive directors, namely Mr. Liu Xingxu and Ms. Yan Yunhua, and has complied with the principle of gender diversity of the nomination committee. This change was made in response to amendments to the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Listing Rules") and the Corporate Governance Code as set out in Appendix C1 of the Listing Rules, which will become effective on 1 July 2025. The Board always recognized that sound corporate governance is essential to the overall performance of the Company and believes that this change will help to enhance the effectiveness and diversity of the Board and further enhance the corporate governance standards of the Company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 09
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to HK$5.31, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 2.2% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at HK$5.23 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • May 24
Board Member recently bought HK$2.0m worth of stock On the 21st of May, Qingjin Zhang bought around 450k shares on-market at roughly HK$4.42 per share. This transaction amounted to 80% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought HK$5.6m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • May 02
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥1.20 (up from CN¥0.97 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥23.1b (down 1.5% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥1.46b (up 23% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.3% (up from 5.1% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 6.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 14% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • May 01
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 16, 2025 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 16, 2025 Announcement • Apr 28
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 20, 2025 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., Annual General Meeting, Jun 20, 2025, at 09:30 China Standard Time. Location: 3rd conference room, 6th floor, r&d building, gate no.7, xinlianxin avenue, xinxiang economic development zone, xinxiang city, henan province China Major Estimate Revision • Apr 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 22% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from CN¥1.15 to CN¥0.90 per share. Revenue forecast steady at CN¥24.8b. Net income forecast to shrink 21% next year vs 72% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Hong Kong . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at HK$5.33. Share price fell 5.4% to HK$4.02 over the past week. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 02
Executive Chairman recently bought HK$699k worth of stock On the 31st of March, Xingxu Liu bought around 170k shares on-market at roughly HK$4.11 per share. This transaction amounted to 28% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Xingxu's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Mar 30
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CN¥1.20 (up from CN¥0.97 in FY 2023). Revenue: CN¥23.1b (down 1.5% from FY 2023). Net income: CN¥1.46b (up 23% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 6.3% (up from 5.1% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 6.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 17% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Mar 14
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 28, 2025 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Mar 28, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 08
Board Member recently bought HK$263k worth of stock On the 3rd of January, Qingjin Zhang bought around 66k shares on-market at roughly HK$3.98 per share. This transaction amounted to 15% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger purchase worth HK$1.1m. Insiders have collectively bought HK$2.9m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 30
Board Member recently bought HK$1.1m worth of stock On the 26th of November, Qingjin Zhang bought around 270k shares on-market at roughly HK$4.02 per share. This transaction increased Qingjin's direct individual holding by 2x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought HK$1.8m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Nov 08
Board Member recently bought HK$672k worth of stock On the 1st of November, Qingjin Zhang bought around 160k shares on-market at roughly HK$4.20 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was the only on-market transaction from insiders over the last 12 months. Announcement • Oct 15
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 30, 2024 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Oct 30, 2024 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 02
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 17% After last week's 17% share price gain to HK$4.33, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total loss to shareholders of 19% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Sep 25
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.56 (vs CN¥0.45 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.56 (up from CN¥0.45 in 1H 2023). Revenue: CN¥12.1b (flat on 1H 2023). Net income: CN¥687.0m (up 26% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 5.7% (up from 4.5% in 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Aug 26
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.56 (vs CN¥0.45 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: CN¥0.56 (up from CN¥0.45 in 1H 2023). Revenue: CN¥12.1b (flat on 1H 2023). Net income: CN¥687.0m (up 26% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 5.7% (up from 4.5% in 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Aug 13
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 23, 2024 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 23, 2024 New Risk • Aug 04
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 4.7% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (94% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (4.7% increase in shares outstanding). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 05
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 3.9% to HK$3.75. The fair value is estimated to be HK$4.71, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 25% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 15%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.9% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 10% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • May 18
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Approves to Declare a Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2023 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced at the AGM held on May 17, 2024, approved a final dividend of 24 RMB cents per ordinary share of the company for the year ended 31 December 2023. Upcoming Dividend • May 14
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.26 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 21 May 2024. Payment date: 07 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 25% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 6.4%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.6%). Announcement • Apr 16
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 25, 2024 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 25, 2024 Announcement • Mar 29
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 17, 2024 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., Annual General Meeting, May 17, 2024, at 14:30 China Standard Time. Location: 3rd Conference Room, 6th Floor, R&D Building, Gate No.7, Xinlianxin Avenue, Xinxiang Economic Development Zone, Xinxiang City Henan Province China Agenda: To receive and adopt the audited financial statements of the Company and the directors' statement and auditor's report for the year ended 31 December 2023; to declare a final dividend of ordinary share of the Company for the year ended 31 December 2023; to approve directors' fees; to re-elect Mr. Zhang Qingjin, a director retiring under Article 89 of the Constitution of the Company, as an executive Director of the Company; to re-elect Mr. Li Shengxiao, a director retiring under Article 89 of the Constitution of the Company, as an independent non-executive Director of the Company; and to consider other matters. Reported Earnings • Mar 09
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS in line with analyst expectations despite revenue beat Full year 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.97 (down from CN¥1.10 in FY 2022). Revenue: CN¥23.5b (up 1.7% from FY 2022). Net income: CN¥1.19b (down 11% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 5.1% (down from 5.7% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Mar 08
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Proposes Final Dividend for the Year Ended December 31, 2023 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. proposed final dividend of RMB 0.24 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023. Announcement • Feb 24
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 08, 2024 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Mar 08, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 26
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 6.4% to HK$3.22. The fair value is estimated to be HK$4.08, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 33% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 37%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 18% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 75% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Jan 17
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 9.2%. The fair value is estimated to be HK$4.07, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 33% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 37%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 18% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 75% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Nov 30
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 14%. The fair value is estimated to be HK$4.17, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 33% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 37%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 18% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 75% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Oct 21
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 03, 2023 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 03, 2023 New Risk • Aug 20
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 4.0% Last year net profit margin: 7.5% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (104% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.0% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 19
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0.45 (vs CN¥0.78 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: CN¥0.45 (down from CN¥0.78 in 1H 2022). Revenue: CN¥12.1b (down 1.3% from 1H 2022). Net income: CN¥546.2m (down 43% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 4.5% (down from 7.9% in 1H 2022). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Aug 04
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Aug 18, 2023 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2023 results on Aug 18, 2023 Announcement • Jul 08
China Xlx Fertiliser Ltd. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2023 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. provided earnings guidance for the six months ended 30 June 2023. For the six months ended 30 June 2023, company expects net profit expected to range from approximately RMB 730 million to RMB 835 million and net profit attributable to the parent is expected to range from approximately RMB 518 million to RMB 586 million. Announcement • Jun 03
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Approves Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2022 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. at its annual general meeting held on June 2, 2023, approved to declare a final dividend of 25 RMB cents per ordinary share of the Company for the year ended 31 December 2022. Upcoming Dividend • May 30
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.29 per share at 6.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 June 2023. Payment date: 23 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 23% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 6.6%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (7.4%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to HK$4.48, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 164% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Mar 26
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2022 results: EPS: CN¥1.10. Revenue: CN¥23.1b (up 37% from FY 2021). Net income: CN¥1.33b (up 2.5% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 5.7% (down from 7.7% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 11%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 11%. Revenue is forecast to grow 7.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 28
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to HK$4.14, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 93% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 30
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to HK$4.11, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 125% over the past three years. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 2 experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Hongxing Li was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Nov 09
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q3, 2022 Results on Nov 18, 2022 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q3, 2022 results on Nov 18, 2022 Announcement • Nov 03
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Announces Successful Commissioning of Gansu Xinlianxin Fertiliser Project The board of directors of China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. and its subsidiaries (together refer to as the "Group") announced that, on 30 October 2022, the Phase I Project with annual output of 140,000 tons of tower compound fertiliser, 30,000 tons of water-soluble fertiliser and 10,000 tons of liquid fertiliser of the Group's subsidiary, Gansu xinlianxin Modern Agricultural Technology CO., LTD. ("Gansu xinlianxin") was put into operation successfully. At the same time, the construction of Phase II Project is also under preparation. Gansu xinlianxin actively responded to the requirements on full-scale transformation, high-end green and quality development put forward by the government and industry park. The project integrates with the new automation and upgrade technology of the Company's production systems, and fully embodies the integrated innovation of production technology and product upgrading, which are conducive to the application of the Company's main core technological advantages such as "nitrogen-efficient, phosphorous reduction, humic acid activation". Depending on the stable supply of raw materials in local areas, as well as the Group's technological advantages and production experience in the compound fertiliser sector, Gansu xinlianxin has laid a solid foundation for further expansion in the markets of Northwest China such as Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia, and at the same time also accelerated the Group's layout across the country. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 25
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 17% share price decline to HK$3.32, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 2x. Average forward P/E is 4x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 83% over the past three years. Announcement • Oct 22
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Provides Group Earnings Guidance for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. provided group earnings guidance for the nine months ended September 30, 2022. The board of directors of company inform shareholders of the company and potential investors that the net profit of the Group for the nine months ended 30 September 2022 is expected to increase to the range between RMB 1,540 million and RMB 1,600 million, representing a year-on-year increase ranging from 10% to 15%. Net profit attributable to the parent is expected to increase to the range between RMB 1,120 million to RMB 1,150 million, representing a year-on-year increase ranging from 10% to 13% while earnings per share is expected to fall into the range between RMB 0.91 to 0.94 per share. Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 16
Executive Director recently bought HK$3.9m worth of stock On the 13th of September, Yunhua Yan bought around 850k shares on-market at roughly HK$4.61 per share. This transaction amounted to less than 1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have collectively bought HK$6.8m more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 26
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to HK$4.72, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Total returns to shareholders of 148% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 20
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: CN¥0 (vs CN¥0.55 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: CN¥0. Revenue: CN¥12.2b (up 61% from 1H 2021). Net income: CN¥959.6m (up 49% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 7.9% (down from 8.5% in 1H 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 5.6%, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Hong Kong. Announcement • Aug 06
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report First Half, 2022 Results on Aug 19, 2022 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report first half, 2022 results on Aug 19, 2022 Announcement • Jun 25
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Declares Final Dividend for the Year Ended December 31, 2021 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. declared a final dividend of 19 RMB cents per ordinary share of the Company for the year ended 31 December 2021, at its AGM held on 24 June 2022. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 21
Upcoming dividend of HK$0.23 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 June 2022. Payment date: 29 July 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 17% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 3.7%. Lower than top quartile of Hong Kong dividend payers (7.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.4%). Announcement • Jun 11
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. to Report Q1, 2022 Results on Jun 24, 2022 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that they will report Q1, 2022 results on Jun 24, 2022 Announcement • May 21
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Announces Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2021 China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced final dividend of RMB 0.19 per share for the Year Ended 31 December 2021. 
