Blue Moon Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6993) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Blue Moon Group Holdings missed earnings this time around, with HK$7.9b revenue coming in 4.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.11 also fell short of expectations by 19%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Blue Moon Group Holdings from eight analysts is for revenues of HK$8.89b in 2023 which, if met, would be a meaningful 12% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 94% to HK$0.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of HK$9.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.20 in 2023. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.
The average price target was steady at HK$5.93even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Blue Moon Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$6.60 and the most bearish at HK$5.15 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Blue Moon Group Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Blue Moon Group Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Blue Moon Group Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that Blue Moon Group Holdings' revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Blue Moon Group Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Blue Moon Group Holdings you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.