Blue Moon Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6993) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

It's been a good week for Blue Moon Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6993) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 9.3% to HK$2.00. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of HK$7.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.7% to hit HK$0.058 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Blue Moon Group Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Blue Moon Group Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of HK$7.63b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 74% to HK$0.096. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of HK$8.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.13 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 20% to HK$2.36, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Blue Moon Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$2.80 and the most bearish at HK$2.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Blue Moon Group Holdings shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Blue Moon Group Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.9% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Blue Moon Group Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Blue Moon Group Holdings. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Blue Moon Group Holdings' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Blue Moon Group Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Blue Moon Group Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.