Is Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings Company Limited (HKG:6868) A Risky Dividend Stock?

Dividend paying stocks like Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings Company Limited (HKG:6868) tend to be popular with investors, and for good reason - some research suggests a significant amount of all stock market returns come from reinvested dividends. If you are hoping to live on the income from dividends, it's important to be a lot more stringent with your investments than the average punter.

With a nine-year payment history and a 3.8% yield, many investors probably find Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings intriguing. It sure looks interesting on these metrics - but there's always more to the story. The company also bought back stock during the year, equivalent to approximately 3.8% of the company's market capitalisation at the time. Some simple analysis can reduce the risk of holding Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings for its dividend, and we'll focus on the most important aspects below.

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Payout ratios

Dividends are usually paid out of company earnings. If a company is paying more than it earns, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. As a result, we should always investigate whether a company can afford its dividend, measured as a percentage of a company's net income after tax. Looking at the data, we can see that 79% of Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings' profits were paid out as dividends in the last 12 months. Paying out a majority of its earnings limits the amount that can be reinvested in the business. This may indicate a commitment to paying a dividend, or a dearth of investment opportunities.

We also measure dividends paid against a company's levered free cash flow, to see if enough cash was generated to cover the dividend. Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings paid out 92% of its free cash flow last year, suggesting the dividend is poorly covered by cash flow. While Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings' dividends were covered by the company's reported profits, free cash flow is somewhat more important, so it's not great to see that the company didn't generate enough cash to pay its dividend. Were it to repeatedly pay dividends that were not well covered by cash flow, this could be a risk to Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings' ability to maintain its dividend.

Consider getting our latest analysis on Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings' financial position here.

Dividend Volatility

Before buying a stock for its income, we want to see if the dividends have been stable in the past, and if the company has a track record of maintaining its dividend. The first recorded dividend for Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings, in the last decade, was nine years ago. It's good to see that Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings has been paying a dividend for a number of years. However, the dividend has been cut at least once in the past, and we're concerned that what has been cut once, could be cut again. During the past nine-year period, the first annual payment was CN¥0.1 in 2012, compared to CN¥0.2 last year. Dividends per share have grown at approximately 4.0% per year over this time. The growth in dividends has not been linear, but the CAGR is a decent approximation of the rate of change over this time frame.

It's good to see some dividend growth, but the dividend has been cut at least once, and the size of the cut would eliminate most of the growth, anyway. We're not that enthused by this.

Dividend Growth Potential

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share (EPS) are growing - it's not worth taking the risk on a dividend getting cut, unless you might be rewarded with larger dividends in future. Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings has grown its earnings per share at 4.4% per annum over the past five years. Earnings are not growing quickly at all, and the company is paying out most of its profit as dividends. That's fine as far as it goes, but we're less enthusiastic as this often signals that the dividend is likely to grow slower in the future.

Conclusion

To summarise, shareholders should always check that Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings' dividends are affordable, that its dividend payments are relatively stable, and that it has decent prospects for growing its earnings and dividend. Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings gets a pass on its dividend payout ratio, but it paid out virtually all of its cash flow as dividends. This may just be a one-off, but we'd keep an eye on this. Second, earnings growth has been ordinary, and its history of dividend payments is chequered - having cut its dividend at least once in the past. In summary, Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings has a number of shortcomings that we'd find it hard to get past. Things could change, but we think there are likely more attractive alternatives out there.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. For example, we've picked out 2 warning signs for Tenfu (Cayman) Holdings that investors should know about before committing capital to this stock.

We have also put together a list of global stocks with a market capitalisation above $1bn and yielding more 3%.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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