Here's Why China Mengniu Dairy (HKG:2319) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

View our latest analysis for China Mengniu Dairy

What Is China Mengniu Dairy's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2023, China Mengniu Dairy had CN¥47.1b of debt, up from CN¥35.5b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have CN¥26.0b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥21.1b.

How Healthy Is China Mengniu Dairy's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that China Mengniu Dairy had liabilities of CN¥34.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥39.3b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥26.0b and CN¥4.53b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥42.8b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit isn't so bad because China Mengniu Dairy is worth a massive CN¥94.8b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

China Mengniu Dairy has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. It is well worth noting that China Mengniu Dairy's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 35% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine China Mengniu Dairy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, China Mengniu Dairy recorded free cash flow of 36% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

China Mengniu Dairy's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But truth be told we feel its net debt to EBITDA does undermine this impression a bit. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that China Mengniu Dairy can handle its debt fairly comfortably. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 1 warning sign with China Mengniu Dairy , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.