China Modern Dairy Holdings (HKG:1117) delivers shareholders decent 83% return over 1 year, surging 14% in the last week alone

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (HKG:1117) share price is up 81% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 32% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! Having said that, the longer term returns aren't so impressive, with stock gaining just 14% in three years.

Since it's been a strong week for China Modern Dairy Holdings shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year China Modern Dairy Holdings saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop below zero. While this may prove temporary, we'd consider it a negative, so we would not have expected to see the share price up. It may be that the company has done well on other metrics.

We are skeptical of the suggestion that the 1.1% dividend yield would entice buyers to the stock. Revenue was pretty stable on last year, so deeper research might be needed to explain the share price rise.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

Take a more thorough look at China Modern Dairy Holdings' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of China Modern Dairy Holdings, it has a TSR of 83% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that China Modern Dairy Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 83% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that China Modern Dairy Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.