China Modern Dairy Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1117 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1117 (HK$0.88) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$5.86)

Is 1117 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1117 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1117 (HK$0.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$5.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1117 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1117?

Key metric: As 1117 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1117. This is calculated by dividing 1117's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1117's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.5x
Sales	CN¥13.24b
Market Cap	CN¥6.56b

1117 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1117's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1117 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.5x
9858 China Youran Dairy Group	0.3x	8.9%	HK$6.2b
1432 China Shengmu Organic Milk	0.4x	n/a	HK$1.4b
809 Global Bio-chem Technology Group	0.5x	n/a	HK$914.3m
875 Congyu Intelligent Agricultural Holdings	0.8x	n/a	HK$531.0m
1117 China Modern Dairy Holdings	0.5x	5.5%	HK$7.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1117 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1117's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
3838 China Starch Holdings	0.09x	n/a	US$146.46m
3999 DaChan Food (Asia)	0.1x	n/a	US$83.61m
359 China Haisheng Juice Holdings	0.04x	n/a	US$8.06m
841 Asia Cassava Resources Holdings	0.07x	n/a	US$7.44m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1117 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1117's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1117 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.5x
Fair PS Ratio	0.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1117 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1117 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$0.88	HK$0.89 +1.7%	17.8%	HK$1.05	HK$0.68	n/a	5
Dec ’25	HK$0.82	HK$0.89 +8.9%	16.2%	HK$1.07	HK$0.71	n/a	6
Nov ’25	HK$0.85	HK$0.89 +5.0%	16.2%	HK$1.07	HK$0.71	n/a	6
Oct ’25	HK$0.98	HK$0.89 -8.9%	16.2%	HK$1.07	HK$0.71	n/a	6
Sep ’25	HK$0.66	HK$0.84 +26.6%	15.6%	HK$1.02	HK$0.66	n/a	6
Aug ’25	HK$0.66	HK$0.84 +27.8%	15.4%	HK$1.00	HK$0.65	n/a	6
Jul ’25	HK$0.70	HK$0.84 +20.5%	15.4%	HK$1.00	HK$0.65	n/a	6
Jun ’25	HK$0.76	HK$0.96 +26.6%	31.7%	HK$1.65	HK$0.65	n/a	7
May ’25	HK$0.65	HK$0.96 +48.0%	31.7%	HK$1.65	HK$0.65	n/a	7
Apr ’25	HK$0.65	HK$1.06 +62.9%	28.8%	HK$1.64	HK$0.75	n/a	9
Mar ’25	HK$0.69	HK$1.09 +58.5%	26.1%	HK$1.65	HK$0.81	n/a	9
Feb ’25	HK$0.64	HK$1.15 +79.4%	22.7%	HK$1.67	HK$0.82	n/a	9
Jan ’25	HK$0.74	HK$1.15 +55.2%	22.7%	HK$1.67	HK$0.82	HK$0.92	9
Dec ’24	HK$0.77	HK$1.14 +48.1%	22.6%	HK$1.65	HK$0.81	HK$0.82	9
Nov ’24	HK$0.79	HK$1.12 +42.0%	23.1%	HK$1.65	HK$0.80	HK$0.85	9
Oct ’24	HK$0.77	HK$1.12 +45.8%	23.1%	HK$1.65	HK$0.80	HK$0.98	9
Sep ’24	HK$0.74	HK$1.20 +61.6%	26.1%	HK$1.89	HK$0.90	HK$0.66	9
Aug ’24	HK$0.82	HK$1.24 +51.1%	24.4%	HK$1.91	HK$0.94	HK$0.66	9
Jul ’24	HK$0.82	HK$1.36 +65.6%	18.7%	HK$1.94	HK$1.16	HK$0.70	9
Jun ’24	HK$0.91	HK$1.36 +49.3%	18.7%	HK$1.94	HK$1.16	HK$0.76	9
May ’24	HK$0.97	HK$1.40 +43.9%	18.4%	HK$2.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.65	9
Apr ’24	HK$1.01	HK$1.45 +43.7%	17.4%	HK$2.00	HK$1.20	HK$0.65	8
Mar ’24	HK$1.11	HK$1.54 +38.8%	15.7%	HK$2.00	HK$1.24	HK$0.69	7
Feb ’24	HK$1.16	HK$1.69 +45.6%	33.7%	HK$3.03	HK$1.28	HK$0.64	7
Jan ’24	HK$0.99	HK$1.69 +70.6%	33.7%	HK$3.03	HK$1.28	HK$0.74	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/04 01:16
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. is covered by 34 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Hong Xing Pan	ABCI Securities Company Limited
Yuanyuan Long	BofA Global Research
Jia Ning Chen	China Everbright Research Limited