China Youran Dairy Group Valuation
Is 9858 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 9858 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 9858's fair value for valuation analysis.
Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 9858's fair value for valuation analysis.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9858?
Key metric: As 9858 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 9858's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Sales | CN¥19.67b |
| Market Cap | CN¥4.49b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does 9858's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 0.6x | ||
1117 China Modern Dairy Holdings | 0.4x | 7.1% | HK$6.3b |
1432 China Shengmu Organic Milk | 0.4x | n/a | HK$1.4b |
1431 YuanShengTai Dairy Farm | 0.3x | n/a | HK$745.8m |
875 Congyu Intelligent Agricultural Holdings | 1.1x | n/a | HK$716.8m |
9858 China Youran Dairy Group | 0.2x | 8.9% | HK$4.8b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 9858 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does 9858's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 9858 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (0.5x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 9858's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 0.6x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 9858 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$1.24 | HK$1.85 +49.2% | 13.5% | HK$2.10 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 2 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$1.34 | HK$1.97 +47.3% | 13.6% | HK$2.22 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 3 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$1.48 | HK$1.97 +33.3% | 13.6% | HK$2.22 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 3 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$1.15 | HK$1.97 +71.6% | 13.6% | HK$2.22 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 3 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$1.12 | HK$2.06 +83.6% | 10.6% | HK$2.22 | HK$1.75 | n/a | 3 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$1.19 | HK$2.06 +72.8% | 10.6% | HK$2.22 | HK$1.75 | n/a | 3 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$1.18 | HK$2.06 +74.3% | 10.6% | HK$2.22 | HK$1.75 | n/a | 3 |
| May ’25 | HK$1.20 | HK$2.06 +71.4% | 10.6% | HK$2.22 | HK$1.75 | n/a | 3 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$1.22 | HK$2.10 +72.1% | 23.1% | HK$2.85 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 4 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$1.27 | HK$2.29 +80.1% | 24.0% | HK$2.85 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 4 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$1.18 | HK$2.29 +93.9% | 24.0% | HK$2.85 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 4 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$1.47 | HK$2.29 +55.6% | 24.0% | HK$2.85 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 4 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$1.44 | HK$2.29 +58.9% | 24.0% | HK$2.85 | HK$1.60 | n/a | 4 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$1.50 | HK$2.29 +52.5% | 24.0% | HK$2.85 | HK$1.60 | HK$1.34 | 4 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$1.45 | HK$2.77 +91.0% | 39.1% | HK$4.70 | HK$1.60 | HK$1.48 | 5 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$1.46 | HK$2.94 +101.4% | 31.8% | HK$4.70 | HK$1.90 | HK$1.15 | 5 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$1.77 | HK$3.08 +74.0% | 27.0% | HK$4.70 | HK$2.40 | HK$1.12 | 5 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$1.73 | HK$3.32 +91.7% | 27.9% | HK$4.70 | HK$2.40 | HK$1.19 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$1.77 | HK$3.32 +87.4% | 27.9% | HK$4.70 | HK$2.40 | HK$1.18 | 6 |
| May ’24 | HK$2.06 | HK$3.32 +61.0% | 27.9% | HK$4.70 | HK$2.40 | HK$1.20 | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$1.91 | HK$4.01 +109.9% | 29.3% | HK$5.55 | HK$2.40 | HK$1.22 | 5 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$2.00 | HK$4.21 +110.5% | 22.5% | HK$5.55 | HK$2.90 | HK$1.27 | 5 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$2.23 | HK$4.33 +94.2% | 23.9% | HK$5.55 | HK$2.90 | HK$1.18 | 5 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$2.16 | HK$4.33 +100.5% | 23.9% | HK$5.55 | HK$2.90 | HK$1.47 | 5 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$2.04 | HK$4.03 +97.3% | 23.3% | HK$5.30 | HK$2.90 | HK$1.44 | 4 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$1.59 | HK$4.47 +181.1% | 19.4% | HK$5.55 | HK$3.40 | HK$1.50 | 5 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.
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