Silk Road Energy Services Group's (HKG:8250) Earnings Aren't As Good As They Appear

After announcing healthy earnings, Silk Road Energy Services Group Limited's (HKG:8250) stock rose over the last week. While the headline numbers were strong, we found some underlying problems once we started looking at what drove earnings.

Check out our latest analysis for Silk Road Energy Services Group

A Closer Look At Silk Road Energy Services Group's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to December 2023, Silk Road Energy Services Group had an accrual ratio of 0.43. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Even though it reported a profit of HK$11.3m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through HK$73m in the last year. It's worth noting that Silk Road Energy Services Group generated positive FCF of HK$15m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. One positive for Silk Road Energy Services Group shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Silk Road Energy Services Group.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by HK$6.0m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that Silk Road Energy Services Group's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to December 2023. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Silk Road Energy Services Group's Profit Performance

Silk Road Energy Services Group had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that Silk Road Energy Services Group'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Silk Road Energy Services Group you should be aware of.

Our examination of Silk Road Energy Services Group has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.