Improved Earnings Required Before VCREDIT Holdings Limited (HKG:2003) Stock's 26% Jump Looks Justified

Despite an already strong run, VCREDIT Holdings Limited (HKG:2003) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 83% in the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, VCREDIT Holdings may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.8x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios greater than 11x and even P/E's higher than 21x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

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Earnings have risen at a steady rate over the last year for VCREDIT Holdings, which is generally not a bad outcome. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this good earnings growth might actually underperform the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for VCREDIT Holdings

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Is There Any Growth For VCREDIT Holdings?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as VCREDIT Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 5.3% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, lamentably EPS has fallen 59% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 17% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's understandable that VCREDIT Holdings' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

What We Can Learn From VCREDIT Holdings' P/E?

VCREDIT Holdings' recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that VCREDIT Holdings maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for VCREDIT Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on VCREDIT Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.