Stock Analysis

Even after rising 5.4% this past week, SJM Holdings (HKG:880) shareholders are still down 64% over the past five years

SEHK:880
Source: Shutterstock

While it may not be enough for some shareholders, we think it is good to see the SJM Holdings Limited (HKG:880) share price up 15% in a single quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. Indeed, the share price is down 67% in the period. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But it could be that the fall was overdone.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

Check out our latest analysis for SJM Holdings

SJM Holdings isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

In the last five years SJM Holdings saw its revenue shrink by 13% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. It seems appropriate, then, that the share price slid about 11% annually during that time. We don't generally like to own companies that lose money and don't grow revenues. You might be better off spending your money on a leisure activity. This looks like a really risky stock to buy, at a glance.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:880 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 1st 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between SJM Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. SJM Holdings' TSR of was a loss of 64% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

SJM Holdings provided a TSR of 20% over the year. That's fairly close to the broader market return. To take a positive view, the gain is pleasing, and it sure beats annualized TSR loss of 10%, which was endured over half a decade. We're pretty skeptical of turnaround stories, but it's good to see the recent share price recovery. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for SJM Holdings you should be aware of.

SJM Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.