Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (HKG:6862) After Its Half-Year Report

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (HKG:6862) came out with its interim results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CN¥21b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.87 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Haidilao International Holding is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Haidilao International Holding's 31 analysts is for revenues of CN¥43.1b in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 2.0% to CN¥0.78 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥44.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.90 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Haidilao International Holding

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the HK$17.76 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Haidilao International Holding analyst has a price target of HK$24.08 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$13.53. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Haidilao International Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Haidilao International Holding.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Haidilao International Holding. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Haidilao International Holding analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Haidilao International Holding you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.