Even though NagaCorp (HKG:3918) has lost US$2.3b market cap in last 7 days, shareholders are still up 88% over 5 years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 09, 2022
SEHK:3918
Source: Shutterstock

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. To wit, the NagaCorp share price has climbed 57% in five years, easily topping the market decline of 10% (ignoring dividends).

Although NagaCorp has shed US$2.3b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

Check out our latest analysis for NagaCorp

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

NagaCorp's earnings per share are down 26% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

It is not great to see that revenue has dropped by 2.5% per year over five years. So it seems one might have to take closer look at earnings and revenue trends to see how they might influence the share price.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:3918 Earnings and Revenue Growth May 9th 2022

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think NagaCorp will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between NagaCorp's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for NagaCorp shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 88%, over the last 5 years, is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that NagaCorp returned a loss of 17% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 24%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 13% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. Investors who like to make money usually check up on insider purchases, such as the price paid, and total amount bought. You can find out about the insider purchases of NagaCorp by clicking this link.

NagaCorp is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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