NagaCorp Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 3918 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

3918 (HK$3.07) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$3.64)

Is 3918 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3918 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3918 (HK$3.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$3.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3918 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3918?

Key metric: As 3918 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3918. This is calculated by dividing 3918's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3918's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	18.6x
Earnings	US$93.80m
Market Cap	US$1.71b

3918 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.9x
PEG Ratio	0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3918's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3918 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9.6x
1128 Wynn Macau	11.1x	14.4%	HK$29.7b
6889 DYNAM JAPAN HOLDINGS	13.4x	n/a	HK$2.3b
2282 MGM China Holdings	8.1x	6.5%	HK$36.3b
1180 Paradise Entertainment	5.9x	5.0%	HK$1.1b
3918 NagaCorp	18.6x	42.4%	HK$13.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3918 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x) compared to the peer average (9.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3918's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Hospitality Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
1383 LET Group Holdings	1.3x	n/a	US$38.09m
1655 Okura Holdings	0.8x	n/a	US$11.18m
8052 Luk Hing Entertainment Group Holdings	1.4x	n/a	US$2.82m
8510 Top Standard	0.9x	n/a	US$2.25m

No more companies available in this PE range

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3918 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Hospitality industry average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3918's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3918 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.6x
Fair PE Ratio	19.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3918 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3918 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$3.07	HK$3.72 +21.3%	15.5%	HK$4.79	HK$2.95	n/a	6
Nov ’25	HK$3.20	HK$3.72 +16.4%	15.5%	HK$4.79	HK$2.95	n/a	6
Oct ’25	HK$3.73	HK$3.73 +0.03%	15.6%	HK$4.80	HK$2.95	n/a	6
Sep ’25	HK$3.33	HK$3.73 +12.1%	15.6%	HK$4.80	HK$2.95	n/a	6
Aug ’25	HK$3.82	HK$4.03 +5.6%	21.0%	HK$5.59	HK$2.99	n/a	6
Jul ’25	HK$3.83	HK$4.03 +5.3%	21.0%	HK$5.59	HK$2.99	n/a	6
Jun ’25	HK$4.00	HK$4.03 +0.8%	21.0%	HK$5.59	HK$2.99	n/a	6
May ’25	HK$4.12	HK$4.04 -1.9%	21.0%	HK$5.61	HK$3.00	n/a	6
Apr ’25	HK$3.42	HK$4.04 +18.1%	20.9%	HK$5.60	HK$3.00	n/a	6
Mar ’25	HK$3.72	HK$4.57 +23.0%	33.2%	HK$7.40	HK$3.00	n/a	6
Feb ’25	HK$2.64	HK$5.70 +115.9%	33.3%	HK$8.80	HK$3.49	n/a	6
Jan ’25	HK$3.07	HK$5.70 +85.7%	33.3%	HK$8.80	HK$3.49	n/a	6
Dec ’24	HK$3.62	HK$5.90 +62.9%	29.5%	HK$8.78	HK$3.49	n/a	6
Nov ’24	HK$3.29	HK$5.92 +79.9%	29.5%	HK$8.81	HK$3.50	HK$3.20	6
Oct ’24	HK$3.78	HK$6.14 +62.4%	27.0%	HK$8.81	HK$3.65	HK$3.73	7
Sep ’24	HK$4.00	HK$6.60 +65.1%	20.3%	HK$8.78	HK$5.07	HK$3.33	6
Aug ’24	HK$4.70	HK$6.60 +40.5%	20.3%	HK$8.78	HK$5.07	HK$3.82	6
Jul ’24	HK$4.13	HK$7.82 +89.4%	18.3%	HK$10.11	HK$5.44	HK$3.83	6
Jun ’24	HK$4.61	HK$7.81 +69.4%	18.4%	HK$10.10	HK$5.43	HK$4.00	6
May ’24	HK$6.34	HK$7.81 +23.2%	18.3%	HK$10.13	HK$5.45	HK$4.12	6
Apr ’24	HK$6.06	HK$7.81 +28.8%	18.3%	HK$10.13	HK$5.45	HK$3.42	6
Mar ’24	HK$6.56	HK$7.82 +19.2%	18.2%	HK$10.13	HK$5.45	HK$3.72	6
Feb ’24	HK$7.18	HK$8.20 +14.2%	18.8%	HK$10.10	HK$5.44	HK$2.64	6
Jan ’24	HK$6.82	HK$8.17 +19.8%	19.2%	HK$10.19	HK$5.43	HK$3.07	6
Dec ’23	HK$5.78	HK$8.17 +41.4%	19.2%	HK$10.19	HK$5.43	HK$3.62	6
Nov ’23	HK$4.01	HK$8.63 +115.0%	11.2%	HK$10.21	HK$7.27	HK$3.29	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.