Meituan (HKG:3690) Just Released Its Annual Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Shareholders might have noticed that Meituan (HKG:3690) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to HK$166 in the past week. Revenues of CN¥338b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at CN¥5.66, missing estimates by 3.3%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Meituan's 38 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥392.8b in 2025. This would be a notable 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 17% to CN¥7.02. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥391.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥7.57 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Meituan

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at HK$201, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Meituan analyst has a price target of HK$300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$124. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Meituan's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Meituan's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$201, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Meituan going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.