Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding Limited's (HKG:265) 30% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding Limited (HKG:265) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 30% share price jump in the last month. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

After such a large jump in price, Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.9x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding's Growth Trending?

Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 26%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 22% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding's P/E?

Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding that you need to take into consideration.

You might be able to find a better investment than Gangyu Smart Urban Services Holding. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.