What Casablanca Group Limited's (HKG:2223) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

The Casablanca Group Limited (HKG:2223) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 28%. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 10.0% isn't as impressive.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Casablanca Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Consumer Durables industry is similar at about 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Check out our latest analysis for Casablanca Group

How Casablanca Group Has Been Performing

For instance, Casablanca Group's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Casablanca Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Casablanca Group?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Casablanca Group's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.0%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 15% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 12% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Casablanca Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Casablanca Group appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

The fact that Casablanca Group currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Casablanca Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.