Herald Holdings Limited's (HKG:114) 27% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Herald Holdings Limited (HKG:114) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 27% gain and recovering from prior weakness. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 8.5% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Herald Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.1x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 11x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Herald Holdings as its earnings have been rising very briskly. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think this strong earnings growth might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Herald Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Herald Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Growth For Herald Holdings?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Herald Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 274% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 26% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

With this information, we find it interesting that Herald Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Herald Holdings' P/E?

Herald Holdings appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Herald Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Herald Holdings (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a P/E below 20x.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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