AV Promotions Holdings Limited's (HKG:8419) 28% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Those holding AV Promotions Holdings Limited (HKG:8419) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 28% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 31% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that AV Promotions Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Commercial Services industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for AV Promotions Holdings

How AV Promotions Holdings Has Been Performing

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, AV Promotions Holdings has been doing very well. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to wane, which has kept the share price, and thus the P/S ratio, from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on AV Promotions Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like AV Promotions Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 48%. The latest three year period has also seen a 13% overall rise in revenue, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 7.3% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that AV Promotions Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

AV Promotions Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of AV Promotions Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with AV Promotions Holdings.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.