IWS Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:6663) 42% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

IWS Group Holdings Limited (HKG:6663) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 42% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 27% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, IWS Group Holdings may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 4x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For example, consider that IWS Group Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for IWS Group Holdings

Although there are no analyst estimates available for IWS Group Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

IWS Group Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 60%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 81% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 24% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that IWS Group Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

IWS Group Holdings' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of IWS Group Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 4 warning signs for IWS Group Holdings (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than IWS Group Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.