REF Holdings Limited's (HKG:1631) Shares Climb 40% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

REF Holdings Limited (HKG:1631) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 40% gain in the last month alone. The last month tops off a massive increase of 230% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 11x, you may consider REF Holdings as a stock to avoid entirely with its 30.3x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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For instance, REF Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for REF Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on REF Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like REF Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 52%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 34% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that REF Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

REF Holdings' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that REF Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for REF Holdings you should be aware of, and 2 of them are concerning.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.