First Tractor Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 38 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

38 (HK$7.08) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$20.11)

Is 38 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 38 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 38 (HK$7.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$20.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 38 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 38?

Key metric: As 38 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 38. This is calculated by dividing 38's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 38's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	7.3x
Earnings	CN¥1.01b
Market Cap	CN¥13.63b

38 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.6x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 38's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 38 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	23.8x
3899 CIMC Enric Holdings	12.2x	20.3%	HK$13.6b
631 Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings	9.3x	25.8%	HK$15.4b
317 CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group)	67.7x	n/a	HK$28.2b
586 China Conch Venture Holdings	5.9x	16.4%	HK$11.5b
38 First Tractor	7.3x	24.8%	HK$14.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 38 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (23.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 38's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Machinery Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
2060 Pujiang International Group	1x	n/a	US$19.99m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 38 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Machinery industry average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 38's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

38 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.3x
Fair PE Ratio	9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 38 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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