We Think Xinyi Glass Holdings (HKG:868) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Xinyi Glass Holdings Limited (HKG:868) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Xinyi Glass Holdings

What Is Xinyi Glass Holdings's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Xinyi Glass Holdings had debt of HK$8.17b at the end of December 2023, a reduction from HK$13.5b over a year. On the flip side, it has HK$2.39b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$5.78b.

How Strong Is Xinyi Glass Holdings' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Xinyi Glass Holdings had liabilities of HK$11.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of HK$3.60b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of HK$2.39b as well as receivables valued at HK$3.36b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total HK$9.20b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Xinyi Glass Holdings has a market capitalization of HK$41.1b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Xinyi Glass Holdings has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.82. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 18.5 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. Also good is that Xinyi Glass Holdings grew its EBIT at 15% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Xinyi Glass Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Xinyi Glass Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 57% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Happily, Xinyi Glass Holdings's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its net debt to EBITDA is also very heartening. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Xinyi Glass Holdings is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Xinyi Glass Holdings you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.