First Tractor Valuation
Is 38 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 38 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 38 (HK$6.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$20.25)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 38 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 38?
Key metric: As 38 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 38's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 6.9x |
| Earnings | CN¥1.01b |
| Market Cap | CN¥14.24b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.9x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 9.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.3x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 38's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 25.8x | ||
3899 CIMC Enric Holdings | 12.1x | 20.3% | HK$13.4b |
631 Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings | 9.1x | 25.8% | HK$15.2b |
317 CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) | 71.1x | n/a | HK$29.4b |
1882 Haitian International Holdings | 10.8x | 10.7% | HK$32.4b |
38 First Tractor | 6.9x | 24.8% | HK$15.3b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 38 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (24.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 38's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Machinery Industry?
| 1 Company | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
2060 Pujiang International Group | 1x | n/a | US$19.99m |
| 1 Company | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 38 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the Hong Kong Machinery industry average (7.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 38's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 6.9x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 9.8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 38 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.
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