HPC Holdings Limited's (HKG:1742) 39% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

HPC Holdings Limited (HKG:1742) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 39% share price jump in the last month. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 64% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about HPC Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Construction industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.4x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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Check out our latest analysis for HPC Holdings

How HPC Holdings Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at HPC Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on HPC Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, HPC Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 3.8%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 36% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it interesting that HPC Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What We Can Learn From HPC Holdings' P/S?

HPC Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of HPC Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for HPC Holdings you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of HPC Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.