There's Reason For Concern Over Accel Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:1283) Massive 32% Price Jump

The Accel Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1283) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 32%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 94%.

Following the firm bounce in price, Accel Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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Accel Group Holdings has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Accel Group Holdings

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Accel Group Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Accel Group Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 16%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 25% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Accel Group Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Accel Group Holdings' P/E

The strong share price surge has got Accel Group Holdings' P/E rushing to great heights as well. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Accel Group Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Accel Group Holdings you should know about.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.