Stock Analysis
Investors in Dongfeng Motor Group (HKG:489) from five years ago are still down 55%, even after 5.8% gain this past week
While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited (HKG:489) share price has gained 22% in the last three months. But don't envy holders -- looking back over 5 years the returns have been really bad. In fact, the share price has declined rather badly, down some 67% in that time. So we're not so sure if the recent bounce should be celebrated. But it could be that the fall was overdone.
On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$1.2b to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.
View our latest analysis for Dongfeng Motor Group
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over five years Dongfeng Motor Group's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Dongfeng Motor Group, it has a TSR of -55% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 24% in the last year, Dongfeng Motor Group shareholders lost 26% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Dongfeng Motor Group better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Dongfeng Motor Group .
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:489
Dongfeng Motor Group
Engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of commercial and passenger vehicles, engines, and other auto parts in the People’s Republic of China.