Great Wall Motor Company Limited Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 17%

The quarterly results for Great Wall Motor Company Limited (HKG:2333) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Great Wall Motor beat revenue forecasts by a solid 17% to hit CN¥52b. Statutory earnings per share came in at CN¥1.49, in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Great Wall Motor after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Great Wall Motor's 30 analysts is for revenues of CN¥223.8b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be CN¥1.41, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥231.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.52 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Great Wall Motor

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the HK$15.96 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Great Wall Motor analyst has a price target of HK$24.61 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$10.01. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Great Wall Motor's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 15% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Great Wall Motor to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Great Wall Motor's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$15.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Great Wall Motor analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Great Wall Motor that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.