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Guangzhou Automobile Group

SEHK:2238
Snowflake Description

Adequate balance sheet and fair value.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
2238
SEHK
HK$117B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. HK
  3. Automobiles
Company description

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components; and provision of commercial and financial services in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The last earnings update was 80 days ago. More info.


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  • Guangzhou Automobile Group has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.
2238 Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
1.6%
SEHK:2238
1.7%
HK Auto
1%
HK Market
1 Year Returns
12.5%
SEHK:2238
-11.4%
HK Auto
-4.7%
HK Market
2238 Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238) 1.6% 14.8% -19.3% 12.5% 7.9% 26.1%
HK Auto 1.7% 7.9% -19.6% -11.4% 0.5% -7.9%
HK Market 1% 3.9% -7.8% -4.7% 17.5% 2%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • 2238 outperformed the Auto industry which returned -11.4% over the past year.
  • 2238 outperformed the Market in Hong Kong which returned -4.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
2238
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Guangzhou Automobile Group undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Guangzhou Automobile Group to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Guangzhou Automobile Group.

SEHK:2238 Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 6.8%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year HK Government Bond Rate 2%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for SEHK:2238
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year HK Govt Bond Rate 2%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Auto Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.62
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.625 (1 + (1- 25%) (12.11%))
0.786
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
0.8
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2% + (0.8 * 5.96%)
6.77%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for SEHK:2238 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Guangzhou Automobile Group is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

SEHK:2238 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (CNY, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 6.77%)
2020 4,639.50 Analyst x3 4,345.28
2021 3,108.50 Analyst x2 2,726.74
2022 2,266.68 Est @ -27.08% 1,862.21
2023 1,850.60 Est @ -18.36% 1,423.97
2024 1,623.93 Est @ -12.25% 1,170.31
2025 1,494.46 Est @ -7.97% 1,008.71
2026 1,420.03 Est @ -4.98% 897.69
2027 1,379.06 Est @ -2.89% 816.50
2028 1,359.50 Est @ -1.42% 753.87
2029 1,354.16 Est @ -0.39% 703.30
Present value of next 10 years cash flows CN¥15,708.58
SEHK:2238 DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= CN¥1,354.16 × (1 + 2%) ÷ (6.77% – 2%)
CN¥28,969.98
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= CN¥28,969.98 ÷ (1 + 6.77%)10
CN¥15,045.79
SEHK:2238 Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= CN¥15,708.58 + CN¥15,045.79
CN¥30,754.37
Equity Value per Share
(CNY)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= CN¥30,754.37 / 10,236.48
CN¥3
SEHK:2238 Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate CNY/HKD
(Reporting currency to currency of SEHK:2238)
1.137
Value per Share
(HKD)
= Value per Share in CNY x Exchange Rate (CNY/HKD)
= CN¥3 x 1.137
HK$3.42
Value per share (HKD) From above. HK$3.42
Current discount Discount to share price of HK$8.09
= -1 x (HK$8.09 - HK$3.42) / HK$3.42
-136.9%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

  • The current share price of Guangzhou Automobile Group is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Guangzhou Automobile Group's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Guangzhou Automobile Group's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
SEHK:2238 PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-03-31) in CNY CN¥0.96
SEHK:2238 Share Price ** SEHK (2019-07-18) in HKD HK$8.09
SEHK:2238 Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (HKD/ CNY) 0.88 CN¥7.12
Hong Kong Auto Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 10 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies 9.13x
Hong Kong Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 1,510 Publicly-Listed Companies 10.82x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Guangzhou Automobile Group.

SEHK:2238 PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= SEHK:2238 Share Price ÷ EPS (both in CNY)

= 7.12 ÷ 0.96

7.41x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Guangzhou Automobile Group is good value based on earnings compared to the HK Auto industry average.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group is good value based on earnings compared to the Hong Kong market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Guangzhou Automobile Group's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
SEHK:2238 PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 7.41x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 22 Analysts
9.9%per year
Hong Kong Auto Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 7 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies 1.19x
Hong Kong Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 479 Publicly-Listed Companies 0.8x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

SEHK:2238 PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 7.41x ÷ 9.9%

0.75x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Guangzhou Automobile Group is good value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Guangzhou Automobile Group's assets?
Raw Data
SEHK:2238 PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in CNY CN¥7.77
SEHK:2238 Share Price * SEHK (2019-07-18) in HKD HK$8.09
SEHK:2238 Share Price converted to CNY reporting currency Exchange rate (HKD/ CNY) 0.88 CN¥7.12
Hong Kong Auto Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 13 Publicly-Listed Auto Companies 0.87x
Hong Kong Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 2,197 Publicly-Listed Companies 0.92x
SEHK:2238 PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= SEHK:2238 Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in CNY)

= 7.12 ÷ 7.77

0.92x

* Primary Listing of Guangzhou Automobile Group.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Guangzhou Automobile Group is overvalued based on assets compared to the HK Auto industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Guangzhou Automobile Group's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Auto industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Auto industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Guangzhou Automobile Group has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Guangzhou Automobile Group expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 22 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
9.9%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Guangzhou Automobile Group expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's earnings growth is expected to exceed the Hong Kong market average.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's revenue growth is positive but not above the Hong Kong market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
SEHK:2238 Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
SEHK:2238 Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 22 Analysts 9.9%
SEHK:2238 Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 22 Analysts 6.8%
Hong Kong Auto Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 8.2%
Hong Kong Auto Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 6.6%
Hong Kong Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average -5.2%
Hong Kong Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.5%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
SEHK:2238 Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in CNY Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
SEHK:2238 Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 77,898 6,632 13,061 20
2020-12-31 74,751 6,856 12,325 13
2019-12-31 67,869 6,952 10,822 22
SEHK:2238 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-03-31 67,300 -6,059 9,801
2018-12-31 72,380 -1,268 10,903
2018-09-30 73,445 6,495 11,684
2018-06-30 74,003 8,178 11,517
2018-03-31 74,137 11,486 10,838
2017-12-31 71,568 16,213 10,786
2017-09-30 66,662 4,517 9,642
2017-06-30 62,754 6,453 8,489
2017-03-31 56,158 7,613 8,190
2016-12-31 49,418 5,498 6,288
2016-09-30 44,852 8,635 7,139
2016-06-30 39,398 8,217 6,464

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's earnings are expected to grow by 9.9% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's revenue is expected to grow by 6.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
SEHK:2238 Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Guangzhou Automobile Group Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

SEHK:2238 Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 1.27 1.56 0.97 18.00
2020-12-31 1.20 1.40 0.97 21.00
2019-12-31 1.05 1.23 0.87 21.00
SEHK:2238 Past Financials Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) EPS *
2019-03-31 0.96
2018-12-31 1.07
2018-09-30 1.31
2018-06-30 1.32
2018-03-31 1.27
2017-12-31 1.18
2017-09-30 0.97
2017-06-30 0.79
2017-03-31 0.65
2016-12-31 0.50
2016-09-30 0.57
2016-06-30 0.52

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Guangzhou Automobile Group's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Hong Kong market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Hong Kong market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Guangzhou Automobile Group has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Guangzhou Automobile Group performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Guangzhou Automobile Group's growth in the last year to its industry (Auto).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the HK Auto industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
Guangzhou Automobile Group's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Guangzhou Automobile Group Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

SEHK:2238 Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-03-31 67,300.16 9,800.56 8,497.53 863.53
2018-12-31 72,379.78 10,902.65 9,142.90 826.67
2018-09-30 73,444.89 11,684.44 10,051.34 741.56
2018-06-30 74,002.78 11,516.72 10,162.50 587.15
2018-03-31 74,137.18 10,837.69 9,629.19 572.03
2017-12-31 71,567.91 10,786.22 8,774.84 495.59
2017-09-30 66,661.90 9,641.71 7,742.39 450.22
2017-06-30 62,754.01 8,489.44 6,928.85 414.14
2017-03-31 56,158.05 8,189.81 6,697.60
2016-12-31 49,417.68 6,288.22 6,162.78
2016-09-30 44,851.61 7,139.28 5,337.71
2016-06-30 39,397.66 6,463.63 4,662.11
2016-03-31 34,167.25 5,629.46 4,018.38
2015-12-31 29,418.22 4,232.35 3,828.29
2015-09-30 25,693.04 3,624.24 3,902.45
2015-06-30 23,066.69 3,219.74 3,774.24
2015-03-31 23,028.33 2,875.45 3,806.85
2014-12-31 22,383.42 3,194.79 3,673.96
2014-09-30 22,036.62 2,698.74 3,172.98
2014-06-30 21,343.33 3,175.81 2,969.05
2014-03-31 19,610.83 3,039.89 2,742.50
2013-12-31 18,824.20 2,668.92 2,758.33
2013-09-30 16,746.07 1,537.81 2,482.60
2013-06-30 15,729.14 870.48 2,392.25
2013-03-31 14,500.39 709.87 2,352.53
2012-12-31 12,963.86 1,133.58 2,139.33
2012-09-30 11,995.05 3,507.06 2,035.03

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group used its assets less efficiently than the HK Auto industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • It is difficult to establish if Guangzhou Automobile Group improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed) as it is currently loss-making.
X
Past performance checks
We assess Guangzhou Automobile Group's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Auto industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Guangzhou Automobile Group has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Guangzhou Automobile Group's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Guangzhou Automobile Group's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Guangzhou Automobile Group's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • Low level of unsold assets.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 4.4x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Guangzhou Automobile Group Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

SEHK:2238 Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in CNY Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-03-31 80,927.79 11,960.81 31,967.66
2018-12-31 77,920.68 12,819.68 42,880.44
2018-09-30 77,010.64 10,984.53 40,321.91
2018-06-30 74,775.60 10,733.75 41,956.50
2018-03-31 74,391.96 10,333.30 44,624.59
2017-12-31 70,413.97 10,967.81 50,325.73
2017-09-30 52,818.35 12,637.25 26,038.63
2017-06-30 50,619.08 12,276.86 26,235.72
2017-03-31 48,949.39 13,343.61 19,534.51
2016-12-31 44,839.44 14,944.02 24,080.40
2016-09-30 44,124.52 16,322.55 18,435.84
2016-06-30 42,800.70 17,406.94 25,377.63
2016-03-31 41,686.62 14,936.08 19,122.97
2015-12-31 39,437.43 11,960.52 17,354.10
2015-09-30 37,818.61 11,662.49 16,172.04
2015-06-30 37,321.04 15,116.89 19,664.70
2015-03-31 36,601.82 15,497.51 16,881.36
2014-12-31 36,195.72 14,352.88 18,708.78
2014-09-30 35,156.12 15,300.72 19,435.50
2014-06-30 35,119.36 11,210.68 17,163.69
2014-03-31 34,859.32 7,585.84 19,494.21
2013-12-31 34,062.81 14,171.89 19,712.65
2013-09-30 33,646.03 6,901.91 19,370.14
2013-06-30 33,056.87 14,078.56 20,760.21
2013-03-31 32,466.33 14,223.71 19,109.42
2012-12-31 32,011.61 10,290.80 15,712.88
2012-09-30 32,698.72 10,356.56 15,663.68
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's level of debt (15.3%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (21.9% vs 15.3% today).
  • Operating cash flow is negative therefore debt is not well covered.
  • Unable to confirm if the interest payments on Guangzhou Automobile Group's debt are well covered by earnings due to lack of past financial data.
X
Financial health checks
We assess Guangzhou Automobile Group's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Guangzhou Automobile Group has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Guangzhou Automobile Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
5.34%
Current annual income from Guangzhou Automobile Group dividends. Estimated to be 5.5% next year.
If you bought HK$2,000 of Guangzhou Automobile Group shares you are expected to receive HK$107 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in Hong Kong (2.08%).
  • Guangzhou Automobile Group's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in Hong Kong (5.72%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
SEHK:2238 Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 22 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Hong Kong Auto Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 9 Stocks 3.3%
Hong Kong Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 978 Stocks 3.6%
Hong Kong Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1.2%
Hong Kong Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 2.1%
Hong Kong Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 5.7%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

SEHK:2238 Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2021-12-31 0.42 17.00
2020-12-31 0.40 21.00
2019-12-31 0.36 22.00
SEHK:2238 Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in CN¥) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-05-31 0.380 5.498
2018-08-24 0.379 5.259
2018-05-02 0.270 3.960
2017-05-19 0.153 1.540
2016-08-29 0.102 1.474
2016-05-27 0.122 2.035
2015-10-30 0.082 1.835
2015-08-28 0.082 2.313
2015-07-14 0.082 2.303
2014-08-28 0.092 2.164
2014-06-30 0.082 1.601
2013-09-04 0.041 0.863
2013-06-18 0.046 1.084
2012-10-30 0.071 1.916
2012-08-27 0.071 2.352
2012-03-30 0.102 2.688
2011-10-31 0.000 0.000
2011-09-19 0.000 0.000
2011-08-30 0.000 0.000
2011-04-15 0.112 2.146
2011-03-22 0.112 2.011
2010-09-28 0.092 1.398
2010-08-31 0.092 1.357

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Guangzhou Automobile Group has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile (annual drop of over 20%).
  • Dividend payments have increased, but Guangzhou Automobile Group only paid a dividend in the past 9 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Guangzhou Automobile Group's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are well covered by earnings (2.5x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (2.9x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Guangzhou Automobile Group's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.2%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Guangzhou Automobile Group afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Guangzhou Automobile Group has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Guangzhou Automobile Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Xingya Feng
COMPENSATION CN¥1,387,000
AGE 52
TENURE AS CEO 2.7 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Feng Xingya has been General Manager of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. since November 22, 2016 and served as its Deputy General Manager since July 2008 until November 21, 2016. Mr. Xingya serves as an Executive Deputy General Manager of G AC Toyota. He joined GAIG in 2004. He served as a Deputy Managing Director in Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile Company Limited from June 1998 to December 2004. With the previous and current positions held by Mr. Xingya in the Group and in other companies in relation to the automobile industry, Mr. Xingya has obtained extensive experience in managing automobile manufacturing business which is relevant to the management, operation and development to the Group. He has been an Executive Director of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. since March 23, 2015 and served as its Vice Chairman from November 22, 2016 to August 7, 2017. He serves as a Director of GAC Toyota. Mr. Xingya graduated from Xi'an Jiaotong University with a bachelor degree in engineering in July 1988 and a master's degree in business administration in April 2001.

CEO Compensation
  • Xingya's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.
  • Xingya's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in Hong Kong.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Guangzhou Automobile Group management team in years:

3.7
Average Tenure
56
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Guangzhou Automobile Group management team is about average.
Management Team

Qinghong Zeng

TITLE
Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
58

Xingya Feng

TITLE
GM & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
52
TENURE
2.7 yrs

Dan Wang

TITLE
CFO & Deputy General Manager
AGE
49
TENURE
14.5 yrs

Shao Li

TITLE
Deputy General Manager
AGE
56
TENURE
12.5 yrs

Song Wu

TITLE
Standing Deputy General Manager
AGE
56
TENURE
2.3 yrs

Qingsong Zhang

TITLE
Deputy General Manager
AGE
60
TENURE
4.1 yrs

Hanjun Chen

TITLE
Deputy General Manager
AGE
57
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Li Sui

TITLE
Company Secretary & Head of the Office of the Board
AGE
51

Li Canhui

TITLE
Manager of the Accounting Department

Jinpei He

TITLE
Head of Dept. of Discipline Inspection & Supervision and Staff Representative Supervisor
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
55
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Guangzhou Automobile Group board of directors in years:

2.8
Average Tenure
53
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Guangzhou Automobile Group board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors

Xingya Feng

TITLE
GM & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
52
TENURE
4.3 yrs

Jinpei He

TITLE
Head of Dept. of Discipline Inspection & Supervision and Staff Representative Supervisor
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
55
TENURE
1.6 yrs

Jiang Xiuyun

TITLE
Staff Supervisor & Head of the Audit Department
AGE
51
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Susheng Wang

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥150K
AGE
50
TENURE
5.6 yrs

Qinghong Zeng

TITLE
Chairman
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
58
TENURE
2.8 yrs

Roger Leung

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥150K
AGE
65
TENURE
5.6 yrs

Li Ji

TITLE
Chairman of Supervisory Committee
AGE
53

Zhuangli Yan

TITLE
Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
50
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Maoshan Chen

TITLE
Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
CN¥1M
AGE
55
TENURE
4.3 yrs

Hongxiang Ding

TITLE
Non-Executive Director
AGE
53
TENURE
0.9 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month individual insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (HK$) Value (HK$)
12. Jul 19 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments Company 09. Jul 19 09. Jul 19 -1,932,029 HK$8.01 HK$-15,474,396
12. Jul 19 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 09. Jul 19 09. Jul 19 -6,658,800 HK$8.01 HK$-53,333,001
12. Jul 19 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 09. Jul 19 09. Jul 19 2,884,000 HK$8.01 HK$23,099,113
11. Jul 19 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 08. Jul 19 08. Jul 19 1,725,028 HK$8.32 HK$14,352,229
26. Jun 19 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 21. Jun 19 21. Jun 19 6,925,813 HK$7.82 HK$54,179,239
11. Apr 19 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 08. Apr 19 08. Apr 19 -15,792,978 HK$9.42 HK$-148,709,853
04. Apr 19 Sell Schroder Investment Management Limited Company 01. Apr 19 01. Apr 19 -3,076,400 HK$8.72 HK$-26,817,585
15. Mar 19 Buy Schroder Investment Management Limited Company 13. Mar 19 13. Mar 19 6,722,000 HK$9.54 HK$64,151,424
22. Feb 19 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 19. Feb 19 19. Feb 19 2,710,083 HK$9.19 HK$24,898,335
20. Feb 19 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 15. Feb 19 15. Feb 19 -1,301,178 HK$9.29 HK$-12,085,214
20. Feb 19 Buy BlackRock, Inc. Company 15. Feb 19 15. Feb 19 1,004,000 HK$9.38 HK$9,414,103
15. Feb 19 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 12. Feb 19 12. Feb 19 733,142 HK$9.06 HK$6,644,469
15. Feb 19 Buy J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc. Company 12. Feb 19 12. Feb 19 6,199,724 HK$9.06 HK$56,188,122
14. Feb 19 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 11. Feb 19 11. Feb 19 -9,368,284 HK$8.69 HK$-81,371,048
16. Jan 19 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 11. Jan 19 11. Jan 19 -5,346,127 HK$8.32 HK$-44,455,165
09. Jan 19 Sell Citigroup Inc.,Banking and Securities Investments Company 04. Jan 19 04. Jan 19 -16,000 HK$7.45 HK$-119,229
09. Jan 19 Buy Citigroup Inc.,Banking and Securities Investments Company 04. Jan 19 04. Jan 19 346,000 HK$7.45 HK$2,578,322
29. Dec 18 Buy BlackRock, Inc. Company 26. Dec 18 26. Dec 18 80,000 HK$7.94 HK$635,200
06. Dec 18 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments Company 03. Dec 18 03. Dec 18 463,157 HK$8.49 HK$3,931,647
06. Dec 18 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 03. Dec 18 03. Dec 18 2,168,000 HK$8.49 HK$18,403,718
05. Dec 18 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 30. Nov 18 30. Nov 18 -1,415,304 HK$8.15 HK$-11,527,795
04. Dec 18 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 29. Nov 18 29. Nov 18 3,035,633 HK$8.24 HK$25,021,216
27. Nov 18 Sell J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc. Company 22. Nov 18 22. Nov 18 -3,226,032 HK$7.86 HK$-25,353,054
14. Nov 18 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Private Banking and Investment Banking Investments Company 09. Nov 18 09. Nov 18 15,825,151 HK$7.91 HK$125,245,011
12. Oct 18 Buy J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc. Company 09. Oct 18 09. Oct 18 4,214,096 HK$7.85 HK$33,076,021
10. Oct 18 Sell Schroder Investment Management Limited Company 05. Oct 18 05. Oct 18 -8,153,200 HK$7.67 HK$-62,557,041
19. Sep 18 Buy J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc. Company 14. Aug 18 14. Aug 18 8,259,638 HK$7.71 HK$63,719,813
14. Sep 18 Sell JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments Company 11. Sep 18 11. Sep 18 -4,286,383 HK$7.01 HK$-30,053,107
10. Sep 18 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments Company 05. Sep 18 05. Sep 18 20,454,611 HK$7.81 HK$159,762,773
07. Sep 18 Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments Company 04. Sep 18 04. Sep 18 39,526,723 HK$7.95 HK$314,095,086
01. Aug 18 Buy Schroder Investment Management Limited Company 27. Jul 18 27. Jul 18 4,370,000 HK$7.02 HK$30,676,968
27. Jul 18 Buy BlackRock, Inc. Company 24. Jul 18 24. Jul 18 8,515,200 HK$7.13 HK$60,700,587
X
Management checks
We assess Guangzhou Automobile Group's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Guangzhou Automobile Group has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) Potentially Undervalued?

The stock’s ratio of 7.74x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 9.24x, which means if you buy Guangzhou Automobile Group today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. … And if you believe Guangzhou Automobile Group should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond where it’s currently trading. … This is because Guangzhou Automobile Group’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market.

Simply Wall St -

Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2238) Future Growth Already Accounted For In Today's Price?

However, seeing as Guangzhou Automobile Group is perceived as a high-growth stock, we must also account for its earnings growth, which is captured in the PEG ratio. … A PE ratio of 7.23x and expected year-on-year earnings growth of 12% give Guangzhou Automobile Group a very low PEG ratio of 0.62x. … This means that, when we account for Guangzhou Automobile Group's growth, the stock can be viewed as relatively cheap , based on fundamental analysis.

Simply Wall St -

Could The Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) Ownership Structure Tell Us Something Useful?

See our latest analysis for Guangzhou Automobile Group SEHK:2238 Ownership Summary, June 10th 2019 What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Guangzhou Automobile Group? … Insider Ownership Of Guangzhou Automobile Group The definition of company insiders can be subjective, and does vary between jurisdictions. … Our most recent data indicates that insiders own less than 1% of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd..

Simply Wall St -

Could Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) Have The Makings Of Another Dividend Aristocrat?

(HKG:2238) a good dividend stock? How would you know? Dividend paying companies with growing earnings can be highly rewarding in the long term. Yet sometimes, investors buy a stock for its dividend and lose money because the share price falls by more than they earned in dividend payments. With a goodly-sized dividend yield despite a relatively short payment history, investors might be wondering if Guangzhou Automobile Group is a new dividend aristocrat in the making. We'd agree the yield does look enticing. Before you buy any stock for its dividend however, you should always remember Warren Buffett's two rules: 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Remember rule #1. … Last year, Guangzhou Automobile Group paid a dividend while reporting negative free cash flow. … Looking at the last decade of data, we can see that Guangzhou Automobile Group paid its first dividend at least nine years ago.

Simply Wall St -

How Should Investors Feel About Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2238) CEO Pay?

In 2016 Xingya Feng was appointed CEO of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. … Check out our latest analysis for Guangzhou Automobile Group … How Does Xingya Feng's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies?

Simply Wall St -

Read This Before You Buy Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) Because Of Its P/E Ratio

We'll apply a basic P/E ratio analysis to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2238), to help you decide if the stock is worth further research. … Guangzhou Automobile Group has a P/E ratio of 7.4, based on the last twelve months. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Share Price (in reporting currency) ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Simply Wall St -

What Should We Expect From Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2238) Earnings In The Years Ahead?

The latest earnings update Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. … (HKG:2238) released in December 2018a

Simply Wall St -

Why Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) Could Have A Place In Your Portfolio

I've been keeping an eye on Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. … Looking at the company as a whole, as a potential stock investment, I believe 2238 has a lot to offer. … report on Guangzhou Automobile Group here

Simply Wall St -

Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:2238) As Strong As Its Balance Sheet Indicates?

Common characteristics for these big stocks are their strong balance sheet and high liquidity, which means there's plenty of stocks available to the public for trading. … In times of low liquidity in the market, these firms won’t be left high and dry. … Today I will analyse the latest financial data for 2238 to determine is solvency and liquidity and whether the stock is a sound investment.

Simply Wall St -

What Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.'s (HKG:2238) Share Price Doing?

The company's stock. … received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the SEHK over the last few months. … As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components; and provision of commercial and financial services in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The company operates through two segments, Vehicles and Related Operations, and Others. It offers large to medium sized passenger vehicles, light and heavy trucks, construction vehicles, and energy vehicles; motorcycles comprising standard motorcycles, sport bikes, scooters, etc.; and auto-parts, including engines, gearboxes, car seats, HVAC systems, auto lamps, automation accessories, redirectors, shock absorbers, and accessories. It is also involved in the automobile disassembling and automobile credit activities; trade of steel; and the provision of automobile financing, logistics, after-sale, and automobile insurance services, as well as investment and investment management activities. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People’s Republic of China. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group Co., Ltd.

Details
Name: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.
2238
Exchange: SEHK
Founded: 1997
HK$116,507,508,651
10,236,482,980
Website: http://www.gac-motor.com
Address: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.
No.633, East Road of Jinshan Avenue,
Panyu District,
Guangzhou,
Guangdong Province, 511434,
China
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
SEHK 2238 Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd. HK HKD 30. Aug 2010
OTCPK GNZU.F Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed Pink Sheets LLC US USD 30. Aug 2010
DB 02G Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 30. Aug 2010
SHSC 2238 Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited - Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect HK HKD 30. Aug 2010
SZSC 2238 Foreign Shares-Foreign Listed The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect HK HKD 30. Aug 2010
SHSE 601238 Domestic Shares Shanghai Stock Exchange CN CNY 05. Apr 2012
XSSC 601238 Domestic Shares Shanghai Stock Exchange - Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect CN CNY 05. Apr 2012
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
94,856
Guangzhou Automobile Group employees.
Industry
Automobile Manufacturers
Automobiles
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/07/18 12:59
End of day share price update: 2019/07/18 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/07/17
Last earnings filing: 2019/04/29
Last earnings reported: 2019/03/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.