Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.

SEHK:2238 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$82.7b

Guangzhou Automobile Group Valuation

Is 2238 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2238 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2238 (HK$3.47) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$1.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2238 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2238?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

2238 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-17.1x
PEG Ratio0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2238's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2238 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.3x
175 Geely Automobile Holdings
15.6x20.0%HK$86.8b
2333 Great Wall Motor
10x17.9%HK$178.7b
489 Dongfeng Motor Group
4.3x-9.4%HK$28.2b
1958 BAIC Motor
3.5x-0.2%HK$18.8b
2238 Guangzhou Automobile Group
7.4x18.7%HK$82.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2238 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the peer average (8.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2238's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.3%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.3%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2238 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (19.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2238's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2238 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.4x
Fair PE Ratio8.7x

PM vs Fair Ratio: 2238 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2238 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$3.47
HK$5.44
+56.8%
32.7%HK$9.88HK$3.16n/a18
Feb ’25HK$3.10
HK$5.26
+69.7%
28.3%HK$9.21HK$3.18n/a17
Jan ’25HK$3.63
HK$5.49
+51.3%
25.0%HK$9.18HK$3.20n/a17
Dec ’24HK$3.59
HK$5.49
+53.0%
24.9%HK$9.17HK$3.20n/a17
Nov ’24HK$3.67
HK$5.61
+52.8%
26.5%HK$9.00HK$3.20n/a17
Oct ’24HK$3.87
HK$6.49
+67.8%
29.0%HK$11.66HK$3.18n/a19
Sep ’24HK$4.13
HK$6.63
+60.5%
25.8%HK$11.39HK$3.21n/a20
Aug ’24HK$4.78
HK$7.08
+48.1%
24.1%HK$11.46HK$3.83n/a20
Jul ’24HK$4.67
HK$7.39
+58.3%
23.1%HK$11.60HK$3.88n/a20
Jun ’24HK$4.54
HK$7.42
+63.4%
23.2%HK$11.66HK$3.90n/a20
May ’24HK$4.87
HK$7.72
+58.5%
25.3%HK$12.79HK$3.98n/a19
Apr ’24HK$4.95
HK$7.98
+61.1%
24.7%HK$13.01HK$4.00n/a18
Mar ’24HK$5.24
HK$8.71
+66.2%
25.0%HK$12.84HK$4.50n/a18
Feb ’24HK$5.95
HK$9.11
+53.1%
24.0%HK$13.21HK$5.11HK$3.1019
Jan ’24HK$5.26
HK$9.01
+71.2%
22.7%HK$12.88HK$4.98HK$3.6319
Dec ’23HK$5.63
HK$8.82
+56.7%
22.4%HK$12.19HK$4.80HK$3.5919
Nov ’23HK$4.91
HK$8.80
+79.3%
21.3%HK$12.06HK$4.75HK$3.6720
Oct ’23HK$5.60
HK$9.78
+74.7%
17.7%HK$12.67HK$6.10HK$3.8721
Sep ’23HK$6.78
HK$9.73
+43.5%
18.5%HK$12.70HK$5.70HK$4.1321
Aug ’23HK$7.65
HK$9.65
+26.1%
18.2%HK$14.27HK$5.82HK$4.7823
Jul ’23HK$7.59
HK$9.60
+26.5%
18.4%HK$14.40HK$5.87HK$4.6723
Jun ’23HK$7.56
HK$9.43
+24.8%
20.7%HK$14.54HK$5.90HK$4.5423
May ’23HK$6.77
HK$9.51
+40.4%
20.1%HK$14.44HK$6.18HK$4.8723
Apr ’23HK$6.59
HK$9.53
+44.7%
17.1%HK$12.56HK$6.21HK$4.9522
Mar ’23HK$7.84
HK$9.97
+27.2%
11.9%HK$12.63HK$7.90HK$5.2426
Feb ’23HK$7.60
HK$9.81
+29.1%
11.8%HK$12.49HK$7.96HK$5.9526

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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