We're Not Counting On Lavipharm (ATH:LAVI) To Sustain Its Statutory Profitability

Broadly speaking, profitable businesses are less risky than unprofitable ones. However, sometimes companies receive a one-off boost (or reduction) to their profit, and it's not always clear whether statutory profits are a good guide, going forward. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Lavipharm (ATH:LAVI).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Lavipharm made a profit of €6.88m on revenue of €35.7m.

View our latest analysis for Lavipharm

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. So today we'll look at what Lavipharm's cashflow tells us about its earnings, as well as examining how the receipt of a tax benefit has impacted its statutory earnings. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Lavipharm.

Zooming In On Lavipharm's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Lavipharm has an accrual ratio of 0.53 for the year to June 2020. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of €1.3m, which is significantly less than its profit of €6.88m. Given that Lavipharm had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of €1.3m would seem to be a step in the right direction. However, as we will discuss below, we can see that the company's accrual ratio has been impacted by its tax situation. This would partially explain why the accrual ratio was so poor.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Lavipharm received a tax benefit of €3.3m. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

Our Take On Lavipharm's Profit Performance

This year, Lavipharm couldn't match its profit with cashflow. On top of that, the unsustainable nature of tax benefits mean that there's a chance profit may be lower next year, certainly in the absence of strong growth. Considering all this we'd argue Lavipharm's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 5 warning signs (3 are potentially serious!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Lavipharm.

Our examination of Lavipharm has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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