Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry S.A. (ATH:ELHA)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry S.A. (ATH:ELHA) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry

Crunching the numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€41.7m	€50.0m	€96.3m	€136.8m	€179.0m	€220.2m	€258.6m	€293.8m	€325.8m	€355.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 42.13%	Est @ 30.86%	Est @ 22.98%	Est @ 17.46%	Est @ 13.6%	Est @ 10.89%	Est @ 9%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 22%	€34.3	€33.8	€53.4	€62.4	€67.1	€67.8	€65.4	€61.0	€55.6	€49.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €550m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 4.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 22%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €355m× (1 + 4.6%) ÷ (22%– 4.6%) = €2.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €2.2b÷ ( 1 + 22%)¹⁰= €304m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €854m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €2.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 22%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.446. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry, there are three important items you should explore:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Elvalhalcor Hellenic Copper and Aluminium Industry (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does ELHA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ATSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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