Union Pacific Corporation

BATS-CHIXE:UNPD Stock Report

Market Cap: €131.5b

Union Pacific Valuation

Is UNPD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UNPD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UNPD (€223.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€283.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UNPD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UNPD?

Key metric: As UNPD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UNPD. This is calculated by dividing UNPD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UNPD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.7x
EarningsUS$6.64b
Market CapUS$137.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UNPD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UNPD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.5x
FGP FirstGroup
10.4x3.4%UK£984.1m
CNR Canadian National Railway
16.8x4.3%CA$91.4b
CSX CSX
16.8x5.7%US$61.4b
NSC Norfolk Southern
22x12.5%US$53.0b
UNPD Union Pacific
20.7x7.0%€137.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UNPD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the peer average (16.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UNPD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies5PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UNPD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the European Transportation industry average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UNPD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UNPD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate UNPD's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UNPD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
€248.61
0%
7.0%€274.88€207.37n/a28
Dec ’25n/a
€245.23
0%
6.6%€269.90€203.61n/a28
Nov ’25n/a
€238.20
0%
6.3%€261.72€198.83n/a28
Oct ’25n/a
€235.13
0%
6.9%€261.35€193.09n/a27
Sep ’25n/a
€241.35
0%
6.6%€259.48€194.61n/a27
Aug ’25€227.55
€241.35
+6.1%
6.6%€259.48€194.61n/a27
Jul ’25n/a
€246.50
0%
7.3%€270.98€196.22n/a27
Jun ’25n/a
€246.28
0%
7.0%€268.51€194.44n/a27
May ’25n/a
€247.37
0%
7.0%€271.09€196.31n/a29
Apr ’25€222.70
€240.84
+8.1%
8.1%€269.99€186.20n/a28
Mar ’25n/a
€238.37
0%
8.2%€270.80€186.76n/a28
Feb ’25n/a
€233.37
0%
9.1%€267.76€184.66n/a28
Jan ’25n/a
€218.47
0%
9.7%€256.31€165.42n/a28
Dec ’24n/a
€217.48
0%
9.2%€257.01€165.87n/a28
Nov ’24n/a
€225.61
0%
9.0%€266.83€172.21n/a28
Oct ’24n/a
€232.37
0%
9.4%€269.10€171.84n/a29
Sep ’24n/a
€227.91
0%
9.4%€262.68€167.75n/a30
Aug ’24n/a
€225.20
0%
9.3%€259.18€165.51€227.5530
Jul ’24n/a
€200.92
0%
7.9%€227.26€157.34n/a30
Jun ’24n/a
€204.76
0%
7.7%€231.12€160.00n/a30
May ’24€175.50
€198.41
+13.1%
7.6%€224.84€155.66n/a29
Apr ’24€182.76
€201.55
+10.3%
7.4%€224.64€164.13€222.7027
Mar ’24n/a
€207.52
0%
6.8%€229.79€167.88n/a27
Feb ’24n/a
€201.96
0%
7.0%€224.98€164.38n/a28
Jan ’24n/a
€205.47
0%
7.7%€235.90€167.02n/a28
Dec ’23n/a
€208.28
0%
8.2%€242.92€171.30n/a28

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 22:18
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/11 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Union Pacific Corporation is covered by 59 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
Jeffrey KauffmanAegis Capital Corporation
John EadeArgus Research Company