Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Rotala PLC (LON:ROL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Rotala
What Is Rotala's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of November 2020, Rotala had UK£26.7m of debt, up from UK£25.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of UK£1.04m, its net debt is less, at about UK£25.7m.
A Look At Rotala's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Rotala had liabilities of UK£36.8m due within a year, and liabilities of UK£41.3m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of UK£1.04m as well as receivables valued at UK£22.3m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling UK£54.7m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the UK£15.8m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Rotala would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Rotala will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Over 12 months, Rotala reported revenue of UK£78m, which is a gain of 16%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. That rate of growth is a bit slow for our taste, but it takes all types to make a world.
Caveat Emptor
Over the last twelve months Rotala produced an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss. Its EBIT loss was a whopping UK£2.6m. Combining this information with the significant liabilities we already touched on makes us very hesitant about this stock, to say the least. Of course, it may be able to improve its situation with a bit of luck and good execution. Nevertheless, we would not bet on it given that it lost UK£4.0m in just last twelve months, and it doesn't have much by way of liquid assets. So while it's not wise to assume the company will fail, we do think it's risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Rotala you should be aware of, and 2 of them don't sit too well with us.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About AIM:ROL
Rotala
Rotala PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides bus services in the United Kingdom.
Good value second-rate dividend payer.