Airtel Africa Plc Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a mediocre week for Airtel Africa Plc (LON:AAF) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to UK£1.11 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$1.2b missing analyst predictions by 4.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.002 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Airtel Africa

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Airtel Africa from ten analysts is for revenues of US$5.76b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 374% to US$0.17. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.83b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£1.54, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Airtel Africa analyst has a price target of UK£2.11 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£1.29. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Airtel Africa's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Airtel Africa's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Airtel Africa's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Airtel Africa. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Airtel Africa. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Airtel Africa going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Airtel Africa , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.