Oxford Metrics plc's (LON:OMG) Financial Prospects Don't Look Very Positive: Could It Mean A Stock Price Drop In The Future?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 22, 2021
AIM:OMG

Oxford Metrics' (LON:OMG) stock up by 5.6% over the past three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak financials, as long-term fundamentals ultimately dictate market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Oxford Metrics' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for Oxford Metrics

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Oxford Metrics is:

5.2% = UK£1.6m ÷ UK£31m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each £1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made £0.05 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Oxford Metrics' Earnings Growth And 5.2% ROE

At first glance, Oxford Metrics' ROE doesn't look very promising. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 8.5% either. For this reason, Oxford Metrics' five year net income decline of 13% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared Oxford Metrics' performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 11% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
AIM:OMG Past Earnings Growth March 22nd 2021

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Oxford Metrics is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Oxford Metrics Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Oxford Metrics has a high three-year median payout ratio of 54% (that is, it is retaining 46% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. Our risks dashboard should have the 3 risks we have identified for Oxford Metrics.

Additionally, Oxford Metrics has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 65% over the next three years.

Summary

On the whole, Oxford Metrics' performance is quite a big let-down. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. Until now, we have only just grazed the surface of the company's past performance by looking at the company's fundamentals. You can do your own research on Oxford Metrics and see how it has performed in the past by looking at this FREE detailed graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flows.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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